TRACKERS

Posted at 1:33 p.m. ET

Both trackers for today are now out.  As reported below, Rasmussen has the race tied among LVs (likely voters).  He had McCain up one yesterday.

Gallup has McCain up five among RVs (registered voters), the same as yesterday's result.

By contrast, Obama had expanded his lead through Tuesday of the week following his convention, the first full day of the Republican conclave.  But, of course, there was not yet anything to compare with, as Sarah hadn't yet made her acceptance speech.  Gallup notes:

While the increased vote share a candidate receives following his convention usually diminishes, candidates who lead after the second convention usually remain the leader a month after the convention. This is based on a review of historical Gallup data since 1964 -- the first year for which Gallup could reliably measure convention bounces.

But we must caution, as do those ads for investments, that past performance is not a guarantee of future results.  This is an unusual race, the conventions were held late, and the internet is a more powerful factor than ever. 

No guarantees here.  Hard work ahead.

Also, I'd like to repeat the admonition given to me by a very experienced news executive, also an Urgent Agenda subscriber:  Be cautious about pollsters interpreting their own polls.  Remember, they have a reputation to defend, and they sometimes have biases. 

We'll be looking at a number of polls, and how they trend over time.

September 9, 2008.